Friday, August 15, 2008

Russia: Poland risks attack because of US missiles

MOSCOW (AP--8/15/08)– A top Russian general said Friday that Poland's agreement to accept a U.S. missile interceptor base exposes the ex-communist nation to attack, possibly by nuclear weapons, the Interfax news agency reported.

The statement by Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn is the strongest threat that Russia has issued against the plans to put missile defense elements in former Soviet satellite nations [...]

"redstar" at Life After the Oil Crash Forum:

As usual Bush is telling the absolute truth when he says this deployment is not directed at the Russians (even though he wants to place it right on the Russian border). As we know (because he tells us so) it's intended to protect Europe from a missile launched by a "rogue state." What "rogue state" is he talking about? They tried to make North Korea the universal "rogue state" that threatened the entire planet to justify this idiocy, but that was so ridiculous and unbelievable that you will note they have quietly stopped telling that bizarre story. Now it's just an unnamed, hypothetical "rogue state" that might somehow materialize in the future.

Here is why Bush wants this to put this battery in Poland: In theory you can intercept a missile at launch, while it's enroute to its target on the edges of outer space, or on its way down. The best place to try and hit it is at launch, when it moves its slowest. Once it gets moving it's almost impossible to intercept because of its speed. Same for descent. And if the missile in question was a MIRV, it releases numerous individual warheads while making its delivery, so then you have to deal with the the problem of trying to intercept 10X the number multiple targets (not good because you'd be extremely lucky to hit even one at this stage). So obviously Bush wants these missiles in Poland to get them as close to the Russian launchers as possible . . . so as to hit Russian missiles at launch.

Even IF he puts this battery in Poland, it can't provide any protection against Russian missiles used for a first-strike. In general, the "the system" doesn't work well enough to bring down even primitive, 1950s style missiles like the thing the North Koreans were playing around with (technological issues that will probably never be resolved). However, if they knew exactly when a missile was going to be launched (to the second), and from precisely where it MIGHT be able to bring one down (occasionally, with a lucky shot) . . . but the Russians are obviously not going to present them with a lauch schedule in advance. Russian missiles use solid fuel propellants and are ready to go with the strike of a match, so it's not like they will be able to observe preparations by way of satellite. Launch location is less of a problem. The US already knows where the Russian missile silos are from decades of satellite surveillance. But how would they every know exactly when a launch was to occur? Hmmm. That's easy. Exactly 5 minutes after an American first strike. So in a sense, the US could actually set the time for a Russian missile launch. Now anybody that has been paying attention to the news reports that pop up here and there on past tests of this "system" (and what scientists in general have been saying about it) knows it probably doesn't work worth a damn, but because the Russians' lives are at stake in this they obviously have to look at it from the perspective of it MIGHT work (at least in some cases). Given its limitations and where they are siting it it's pretty clear that deployment of this system is connected with an American first-strike strategy. And the Russians are surely afraid that this move could strip them of some of their nuclear deterrent.

Some, but not all.

The Russians have apparently seen this coming for some time and have had the foresight to deploy a class of ICBMs that Bush's new toy CAN'T hit (even with a lucky shot). They are sent on their way from mobile launchers, so you never know where they will take off from (even if you know when).

Topl M:

Add to this sea-launched ballistic missiles that can't be touched by Bush's "shield" (even if it worked as billed, which it doesn't). The Russian Navy currently has 13 SSBNs deployed, including 6 Delta III class submarines, 6 Delta IV class submarines and 1 Typhoon class submarine, for a total of 181 missiles equipped with 639 nuclear warheads.

And, if that's not enough, the Russians have have an entirely new line of missiles about to be rolled out that are specifically designed to foil ABM defenses.


So pretend you are a Russian for a minute. You probably see the world this way:

1) The former Soviet Union unilaterally withdrew its military from Eastern Europe and let its former satellites go on their way. In return, most of these countries have been added to an anti-Russian military alliance.
2) The Soviet Union broke up and the US has actively been establishing hostile client states and military presence in a number of them, and has tried to do so in all of them.
3) Following the breakup of the Soviet Union the US not only did not decrease its military spending, it actually increased it.
4) The US refused to make nuclear weapons reductions to the degree proposed by the Yeltsin government and has since been actively "modernizing" its arsenal.
5) The US is now seeking to deploy a weapons system at the Russian border that can only work as part of a first strike strategy.

Oh, let's also add to this the fact that the USAF has added to its portfolio a "Space Command." Yes, we actually have a general in charge of outer space. His whole job is to develop and deploy systems that will knock out Russian (forgive me, "rogue state") communications and surveillance satellites. What MIGHT we not want them to see coming?

So the US has been kicking ass all over the world and building military bases in places we've never heard of and throwing money at the DOD in record amounts and militarizing space and modernizing its nuclear arsenal and deploying an ABM system that to the extent it has any value at all only has any in the context of a first strike strategy . . . because we need to defend ourselves from the Russian threat. You need merely look at how the Russians . . . ummm . . . I guess I slept through that part.

This situation with Russia is not about oil. Because our little world of cars and suburban developments and Monday Night Football (you need enough energy to power a small country for a week to light up an American football stadium for a night game) needs oil to keep running, we think everything is about oil because it makes us so special. Without oil we'd be just another country with too many people and too few resources struggling to get by.

But the reality is this is just the same Cold War crap that went on for decades. It's worse now, though, because the civil branches of American government have not only lost control of the military-industrial complex, they are now part of it (that's really what neocon ideology is . . . a public admission of that fact) . . . and . . . we have our chosen enemy cornered . . . frightened . . . and very dangerous.

Given what is going on in Georgia, the timing of the Polish announcement could only have been intended as a further challenge to the Russians . . . and hence an escalation of an already very bad situation.

Putin is not a nice guy. The Russian military is not the Knights of Columbus. But the US is directly responsible for creating the conditions that enabled them to rise to power in Russia.

And now we have the belligerent moron that did all this (surrounded by lackeys and psychotics like Cheney) gleefully throwing fuel on the fire, as if he (and they) would actually welcome the horror this will bring if things continue on their present course.

This is pure insanity and it's starting to seriously creep me out.

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